Twiggs Money flow Update for Sensex

Saturday, July 4, 2009 0 comments


Chart shows 21 day Twiggs Money flow indicator for sensex with negative divergence in negative divergence pattern.Now the major roadblock is near 14900-15100 Zone. Needs a Strong breakout to sustain for a new uptrend.

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Nifty Futures Hourly Charts and Elliot for 6 July 2009

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Just got fooled with the randomness in the 15 min Nifty future chart in my earlier view . So looking into a higher timeframe as shown above Nifty has formed a typical 5-3 wave pattern with 5 wave downward impulse pattern ending near 4155 and 3 Wave impulse pattern ending near 4440 levels. This pattern will fail if nifty opens gap up above 4440

Now Nifty Future is likely to resist near 4440 levels so that elliot wave pattern in houly charts could proved right or Else resisting near 4500-4510 to form a typical head and shoulders in nifty daily charts.

Reason for the Bearishness is still the market leader reliance is lagging Nifty
When market hits historical circuits nifty closed near 4300 levels and reliance near 2450 levels. Later when market was dragging down from its high of 4700 to 4250 it is observed reliance is trading near 2040 and now nifty above 4400 but still reliance near 2000 levels. Clearly there is a widening of performance between Nifty and the major constituent. It also means that keenly it is not intrested in participating in the upmove.

Also trin is a good earlier indication in producing signals. But still trin is not in bullz zone(below 1).
Also check for the charts on hourly basis...means if the hourly candle closes above 4450 then it is sign of strength... ex check during the end of hour near 9:59:59 A.m or near 10.59.59 a.m or near 11.59.59 a.m. If nifty trade below 4440 in all the durations then it is a clear sign of weekness. There is also chance of testing 4500 levels in between 10:00:00 a.m - 10:59:59 a.m

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Nifty Futures Hourly Charts and Elliot for 6 July 2009

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Just got fooled with the randomness in the 15 min Nifty future chart in my earlier view . So looking into a higher timeframe as shown above Nifty has formed a typical 5-3 wave pattern with 5 wave downward impulse pattern ending near 4155 and 3 Wave impulse pattern ending near 4440 levels. This pattern will fail if nifty opens gap up above 4440

Now Nifty Future is likely to resist near 4440 levels so that elliot wave pattern in houly charts could proved right or Else resisting near 4500-4510 to form a typical head and shoulders in nifty daily charts.

Reason for the Bearishness is still the market leader reliance is lagging Nifty
When market hits historical circuits nifty closed near 4300 levels and reliance near 2450 levels. Later when market was dragging down from its high of 4700 to 4250 it is observed reliance is trading near 2040 and now nifty above 4400 but still reliance near 2000 levels. Clearly there is a widening of performance between Nifty and the major constituent. It also means that keenly it is not intrested in participating in the upmove.

Also trin is a good earlier indication in producing signals. But still trin is not in bullz zone(below 1).
Also check for the charts on hourly basis...means if the hourly candle closes above 4450 then it is sign of strength... ex check during the end of hour near 9:59:59 A.m or near 10.59.59 a.m or near 11.59.59 a.m. If nifty trade below 4440 in all the durations then it is a clear sign of weekness. There is also chance of testing 4500 levels in between 10:00:00 a.m - 10:59:59 a.m

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PERFORMANCE OF 2-7-9

Thursday, July 2, 2009 0 comments

AS TOLD YESTERDAY TODAY IN SECOND SESSION MARKET TANKED IN END IT RECOVERED BY SHORT COVERING
OUR CLIENTS EXITED ALL LONG POSITION IN TIME
HOLDING CERTIAN STOCKS FOR TOMMROW
MADE HUGE PROFITS IN EDUCATION STOCKS

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CAUTION NOTE

Wednesday, July 1, 2009 0 comments

WE THINK THAT TOMMROW MARK ET IN SECOND SESSION MAY TANK AHEAD OF BUDGET SO BE CAUTIONS DONT HOLD ANY BIG POSITIONS
IF U WANT TO HOLD THEN HEEDGE YOUR LONG POSITIONS WITH NIFTY PUT OPTIONS
SAFER SIDE STRADALE PLAY
BUY 4800 CA & 3800 PA

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PERFROMANCE

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SEE WITH YOUR NAKED EYESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
MAD RUN OF EDUCATIONAL STOCKS OUR CLIENTS MADE HUGE MONEY MINTED IN TONNS
EDUCOMP FROM 3042 TO 4400
EVERONN FROM 385 TO 458
CORPROJECT 109 T0 150
NIIT FROM 56 T0 68
12 PERSONS MADE CHARITY OF 1000-2500RS VOLANTARLY THANKS TO ANUP,AKASH,
UMESH,PRABHU,IMTIYAZ,DANNY,
NADAGOUNDAR,
MADHUSUDHAN
,SRINIVASNAIR,ALEX,SAILESH
&OTHERS

AND ALSO OUR PREMIUM MEMBER CALL AREVAT&D HUGE PROFIT 60RS UP
OUR CLIENTS MADE PROFIT OF 60000/HEAD
PAID EXTRA 1000/

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Until now no Bullish Cues from Trin

Tuesday, June 30, 2009 0 comments

Until now 10 day SMA trin shows bearishness(raising trin) and today shows a sharp move towards 2.0 i.e still at oversold levels(Delivery based selling zone)

Note : Only falling trin is considered as bullish. Raising Trin is Considered as bearish

Still Now.

1)No Bullish cues from TRIN(Still in raising mode)
2)No Bullish Cue from USD Index(Still remains rangebound)
3)Nifty Bearish Top formation in Weekly Charts
4)Reliance lagging Nifty - A Bearish Factor as per Dow theory if the market leader lags the index

TODAY

Nifty Fut Open Interest up 3.15% with 32% increasing volumes indicates formation of fresh shorts

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ANOTHER

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ANOTHER BUMPER CROP FOR ALL OF U BUY BATRONICS HOLD FOR SHORT TERM EARN & MINT MONEY HOLD AZMEERA FOR TGT OF 450 FOR MEDIUM TERM

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PAY CHARITY

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AND TOLD ALL OF U BUY EDUCATION STOCKS
EDUCOMP MADE MORE THEN 400 RS UP
EVERONN MADE MORE THEN 30RS UP
CORE 15RS UP
ENJOY HUGE PROFITS & PAY SINCERELY CHARITY AMOUNT OF 1000RS

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performace

Monday, June 29, 2009 0 comments

SEE OUR PAID CLIENTS MADE HUGE PROFITS IN AZMEERA RECOMENDED 4DAYS AGO @ 140 NOW TRADING @ 220 OLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

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PERFORMANCE REPORT 29-6-9

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ALL RECOMMENED STOCKS ROCKED TODAY INCLUDING NIFTY FUT & CALLOPTION FROM 4% TO 14%
ACCURACY 90%

PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS PAY CHARITY AMTTTTTTTTT OUT OF UR HUGGGGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE PROFITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

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Sunday, June 28, 2009 0 comments

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Pre-budget week some stocks

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In Our Opinion, in Pre-budget week some stocks like Unitech, KS Oil, MRPL,Exide, S Kumar Nation, Dredging Corporation, Anu Labo, LG Bala may rise & may give better n good returns in a week time…..


We would like to draw attention for one company..& that is RUNGTA IRRIGATION…….BSE Code : 530449…….This company is engaged in drip irrigation's business & mfg. irrigation equipment,machinery, pipes…. Government is going to boost Rural & Agricultural Sector in coming central budget……
This stock can be a multibagger & DARK HORSE in coming time……Those who believes in high risk-return may have a keep n keen watch on this company for long term investment….

For Disinvestment candidate u can keep watch on Hind Copper(513599) & on Dredging Corporation(523618)….




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NEXT WEEK AHEAD

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WEEK AHEAD
The way the market picked up steam Friday, it augurs well for the market. Foreign institutions have turned buyers once again. Also, domestic funds as well as LIC were active today, which gave a fillip to trade.
NIFTY RANGE
4100-4500
CRUCIAL
SUPPORT 4180 & RESISTANCE 4470
APPROACH
CARE & CAUTIOUS
STRATEGY
ANY UP-MOVE WILL BE USED TO COVER THE POSITION, OR
ANY CORRECTION WILL BE LOOKED AS A TIME TO BUY.

MARKET TREND
VOLATILE
MARKET OUTLOOK
MEDIUM TO LONG TERM PRESPECTIVE ARE PRETTY MUCH BULLISH
EXPECT
VOLATILITY MAY RISE AHEAD OF UNION BUDGET
SECTOR TO WATCH
IT, BANKING & INFRASTRUCTURE
FACTORS MONSOON & BUDGET
· TECHNICALLY:
The markets have shown remarkable degree of resilience at the 4200 levels. In the last few days also, despite all the selling, every time it went below 4200, it actually bounced back. So it’s this 200 point band that we believe it will trade in.
The charts are telling us to take a great deal of care and caution because there has been a sharp rise earlier in April-May, then a retreat then a rise through to 4700 and now the current retreat. The danger is that this has potential to create a head and shoulders pattern which gives us a short-term reversal and a retest of support at around 3900.
So what we are looking for is the potential for a right hand shoulders to develop and that could be a rally up-to 4400-4500 followed by a retreat and a fall below 4200 confirms that head and shoulder pattern development.
The Nifty has a benchmark support at of somewhere around 4200. It is bouncing back from that level so we assume that the uptrend is intact, until and unless that 4200 level is not broken down decisively which usually means on the close. Searching for individual stocks becomes much more difficult. We have seen small rallies but impression is that these rallies are primarily small upswings after that sharp correction. So the idea is go long. The Nifty has a trading range between 4100 and 4500. You should be aggressively on the long side only above 4400.
· STRANGLES AND STRADDLES:
Two of the most commonly used options trading strategies by these traders are strangles and straddles.
The participation of retail investors in such strategies is minuscule, as they seek trading strategies to bet on the market direction rather than implied volatilities (IVs). The expected volatility in an index or share price is a key aspect of pricing of options premium (when IVs rise, premiums rise, and the converse also holds true).
Buying straddles would not be wise at this juncture, as option premiums are expensive. Higher premiums offer very little scope for any sharp upsides. Buying strangles, which is again betting that, there will be a jump in IVs ahead of the Budget. But, in this strategy, a trader buys an out-of-the-money call and put option. If the index is at 4300, the trader can buy a call option at 4700 and a put option at 4000.
If the premium charged for the call and put option is Rs 50 each, then the trader will gain only if the index crosses 3900 on the downside and 4800 on the upside. But, advised to square up the strategies just before the Budget. Traders need to buy these strategies around five days before the Budget and square it off one hour before the Budget starts, as IVs will start dipping just after the event. As uncertainty recedes after the event, IVs dip. The main risk to these strategies is if IVs do not rise ahead of the Budget, traders lose out on the premiums.
· SECTORIAL:
From medium to long term view. bullish on IT stocks. For last several days, Nasdaq, which comprises many IT companies, saw a lot of accumulation indicating that worst may be over for the IT industry. Banking sectors is another space that looks positive. Banking stocks are now in a continuation of bullish pattern.
· UNION BUDGET:
The market could be volatile ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget 2009-2010 on 6 July 2009. Stock specific activity may rule the roost based on budget expectations. The Annual Economic Survey will be presented on 2 July 2009, a day ahead of the Rail Budget on 3 July 2009. Investors will track global cues for a direction
The next major trigger for the market is the Union Budget 2009-2010. Many equity analysts have been raising earnings forecasts of India Inc on hopes that the new government will provide thrust on the infrastructure sector and push economic reforms to boost growth. Citigroup expects the economy to grow by 6.8% in the year ending March 2010 (FY 2010) and 7.8% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011).
The Union Budget 2009-2010 attains significant importance in the wake of the global financial crisis. Despite the country being relatively unharmed compared to the West, the UPA government will have many tasks on its to-do list, which includes boosting growth and demand, continuing to maintain liquidity, balancing inflation and also containing the country's worrying fiscal situation.
· RAIL BUDGET:
Railway Minister Ms Mamata Banerjee will present the Rail Budget on 3 July 2009. As per media reports, another fare cut is unlikely because Lalu Prasad's Interim Railway Budget in February 2009 has already strained the Indian Railways' finances. Lalu Prasad had announced a 2% reduction in passenger fares. Similarly, any increase in freight rates looks unfeasible because of the current economic downturn. With the present economic conditions not providing much scope for either large-scale fare concessions or an across-the-board increase in freight rates, the highlight of the Railway Budget for 2009-10 is likely to be a big push to public-private partnership (PPP) initiatives to enhance the Indian Railways' capacity to earn higher revenues on a sustainable basis.
· REFORMS & DISINVESTMENT:
The Government has made its intention clear to push for reforms and pursue the disinvestment agenda, which was met with stiff opposition in the UPA's previous stint when the Left parties were members for a major part of the five-year tenure. The Congress party had in its manifesto released before polls promised to go ahead with disinvestment while retaining a majority holding in the state-run companies. Disinvestment programme was earlier put on backburner due to stiff opposition from the Left front.
· BILL TO AMEND THE INSURANCE ACT :
Also the passage of the Bill to amend the Insurance Act, 1938 is likely to be touched upon in the budget. Apart from raising the foreign investment ceiling to 49%, from 26% at present, the Bill had proposed to do away with the stipulation on Indian promoters having to mandatorily sell a part of their holdings after 10 years of operation.
· DREGULATE FUEL PRICING:
The Indian government may unveil a roadmap in its 6 July budget to deregulate fuel pricing and give leeway to state-run oil refiners to fix petrol and diesel prices within a band. If the reform proposals are approved prices of petrol could rise by Rs 5.1 a litre and diesel by Rs 2.6 a litre. After the ruling coalition was re-elected in May with a stronger mandate, Oil Minister Murli Deora had said the government was considering a proposal to free state controls on transport fuel prices.
· PPP:
With infrastructure bottlenecks plaguing the economy, expectations are rife that the upcoming Budget will provide a big stimulus to this core sector, particularly roads and ports. A big push to Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects in infrastructure may be also on the cards.
For the power sector, the Budget may contain significant increases in spending, including for generation, rural electrification, and for minimising transmission and distribution losses. Other measures which the Budget may announce on infrastructure would be to give greater flexibility to the Infrastructure investment and Financing Company (IIFCL), which has been set up as a refinancing facility for infrastructure projects, to deploy funds.
· FII ACTIVITY:
Meanwhile, foreign funds activity will be closely watched. After aggressively buying during the past three months or so foreign funds sold shares totaling Rs 3,168.40 crore in eight trading session from 15 June 2009 to 24 June 2009. FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 2,964 crore (till 24 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 24,283.40 crore (till 24 June 2009).
· MONSOON:
Investors will also closely watch the progress of India's annual monsoon. Prithviraj Chavan, the Minister of Science and Technology, said in a press conference, on Wednesday, 24 June 2009, that India's monsoon, which runs from June to September, will be below normal this year. Monsoon rains will be 93% of long term average. Rain in the crucial sowing month of July will be 93% of long term average. The rains are likely to pick up in August in which month rains will be 101% of long term average, the minister said.
The June-September monsoon rains are a major influence on the economy, as two-thirds of Indians depend on agriculture and large areas of the vast south Asian country suffer from a lack of modern irrigation facilities. Poor monsoon rains could dent rural demand, hurt corporate profitability and undermine sentiment in financial markets.
IN-A-NUTSHEL:
Open interest has risen, volumes were high and Nifty futures were in premium. If Nifty manages to break above 4470 we’ll witness a pre-budget rally up-to 4800-5200. Cues from the US markets are also positive. Dow Jones and S&P 500 Indices suggest that up-move is likely to continue for sometime.

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